Akademik Məlumat İdarəetmə Sistemi
Regional Studies in Marine Science, vol.90, 2025 (SCI-Expanded)
The coastal economic activities in the Bohai and Yellow Seas represent a critical driver of regional growth, yet they also pose complex macroeconomic and financial risks due to environmental pressures, overexploitation of marine resources, and vulnerability to global market fluctuations. This study aims to evaluate the macroeconomic and financial implications of coastal economic activities by integrating risk analysis with econometric modelling over the period 2000–2022. Using a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model complemented with a Dynamic Panel Data approach, the analysis captures the interactions between coastal industrial output, fisheries and shipping activities, environmental quality indicators, and financial stability measures across provinces bordering the Bohai and Yellow Seas. The results reveal that (i) a 1 % increase in coastal industrial activity raises short-term GDP growth by 0.4 % but simultaneously amplifies inflationary pressures through energy and resource constraints; (ii) fisheries output exhibits diminishing returns, with ecological degradation reducing long-term productivity by nearly 15 %; (iii) shipping and port activities significantly strengthen trade balance performance but also increase exposure to external demand shocks; (iv) financial sector volatility, measured through credit-to-GDP ratios, intensifies during periods of environmental stress and resource scarcity; and (v) coordinated green investment flows moderate risk exposure and contribute positively to long-run stability. The findings underscore the urgent need for integrated policy frameworks that balance economic exploitation with ecological preservation, ensuring that coastal development in the Bohai and Yellow Seas is both financially resilient and environmentally sustainable.