Analysing human error contribution to ship collision risk in congested waters under the evidential reasoning SPAR-H extended fault tree analysis

Uflaz E., AKYUZ E., Arslan Ö., Gardoni P., Turan O., AYDIN M.

Ocean Engineering, vol.287, 2023 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus) identifier identifier

  • Nəşrin Növü: Article / Article
  • Cild: 287
  • Nəşr tarixi: 2023
  • Doi nömrəsi: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2023.115758
  • jurnalın adı: Ocean Engineering
  • Jurnalın baxıldığı indekslər: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, PASCAL, Aerospace Database, Applied Science & Technology Source, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), Communication Abstracts, Compendex, Computer & Applied Sciences, Environment Index, ICONDA Bibliographic, INSPEC, Metadex, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Açar sözlər: Evidential reasoning, Fault tree, Human error, Risk analysis, Ship collision, SPAR-H
  • Açıq Arxiv Kolleksiyası: Məqalə
  • Adres: Yox

Qısa məlumat

Human error plays a crucial role in maritime transportation risk analysis, as a significant percentage of accidents, including collisions, groundings, capsizing, fires, and explosions, can be attributed to human errors. However, obtaining a dataset that quantifies human error probabilities for maritime risk analysis is challenging due to commercial constraints. To address this issue, this paper proposes a conceptual framework that integrates evidential reasoning (ER) and the standardized plant analysis risk-human reliability analysis (SPAR-H) method to quantify human errors, while employing fault tree analysis (FTA) to predict risk. The specific focus of this study is ship collision risk in congested waters, which serves as a demonstration case to showcase the proposed method and illustrate a detailed analysis of collision risk. The findings reveal that “inadequate watchkeeping due to sole lookout”, “improper RADAR monitoring”, and “ineffective execution of COLREG-related actions” are the most significant human errors contributing to collision risk in congested waters. The outcomes of this research provide valuable insights for ship owners, safety professionals, ship masters, inspectors, and researchers in the maritime industry. The findings can assist in minimizing collision risk and improving navigational safety in congested waters.