Akademik Məlumat İdarəetmə Sistemi
12th International Conference on Theory and Application of Soft Computing, Computing with Words and Perception and Artificial Intelligence, CSCCW 2024, Budva, Montenegro, 26 - 27 August 2024, vol.1472 LNNS, pp.140-147, (Full Text)
In recent years, Azerbaijan’s economy has faced significant uncertainties due to global challenges as the COVID-19 outbreak and global climate changes. These events have negatively shaped the main economic indicators. This study employs a fuzzy dynamic pattern recognition model (FDPRM) to assess Azerbaijan’s Economic Uncertainty Index (EUI) from 2015 to 2022. The novelty of the applied method includes the incorporation of time weights in the aggregation of the overall EUI. This method facilitates a more dynamic and accurate measurement of how different factors contribute to EUI over time. The analysis reveals and takes into account the effects of fluctuating economic growth, varying levels of foreign direct investment, and shifts in inflation and tourism revenue. The study also highlights the consequences of COVID-19, the war between Russia and Ukraine, and the impacts of climate on EUI (sub-indices of EUI) dynamics. The elaborated approach and algorithm can be applicable in evaluation of socio-economic indices of other countries.