Dynamic modeling the impact of tax reforms on tax revenue: Evidence from Azerbaijan


QƏZƏNFƏRLİ M., Zhelev Z.

Journal of International Studies, vol.18, no.1, pp.99-15, 2025 (Scopus) identifier

  • Nəşrin Növü: Article / Article
  • Cild: 18 Say: 1
  • Nəşr tarixi: 2025
  • Doi nömrəsi: 10.14254/2071-8330.2025/18-1/6
  • jurnalın adı: Journal of International Studies
  • Jurnalın baxıldığı indekslər: Scopus, Central & Eastern European Academic Source (CEEAS), EconLit, Directory of Open Access Journals
  • Səhifə sayı: pp.99-15
  • Açar sözlər: ARDL model, diagnostic analysis, econometric modeling, tax policy, tax reforms
  • Adres: Bəli

Qısa məlumat

The objective of this study was to ascertain the impact that the implementation of tax reforms has had on tax revenue in Azerbaijan from 2000 to 2022. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) dynamic model was developed to investigate the linkages between tax revenue and tax reforms. Within the framework of developing a new assessment approach, main features of tax reforms were defined and their significance was determined. The analysis incorporated both quantitative and qualitative variables, in particular the influences of technological development and the application of automated systems. The research results demonstrate that the implementation of tax reforms had both short-run and long-run effects on tax revenue in Azerbaijan. Indeed, both qualitative and quantitative variables have been shown to play a crucial role in increasing tax revenues. The findings indicate that tax revenue was positively influenced by the increases in the tax burden rate, the total number of concessions and exemptions, and the application of an automatic tax information system and message service. Conversely, the growing number of tax legislative changes has had an adverse effect. These findings will be of use to the decision-makers responsible for the adoption of national legislation and the drafting of strategy documents.