Improved Z-number and Bayesian network analysis to predict accommodation electrical fire risk on a tanker ship


Tekeli M. M., Arıcı S. S., Sezer S. I., AKYUZ E.

Ships and Offshore Structures, 2025 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus) identifier identifier

  • Nəşrin Növü: Article / Article
  • Nəşr tarixi: 2025
  • Doi nömrəsi: 10.1080/17445302.2025.2516684
  • jurnalın adı: Ships and Offshore Structures
  • Jurnalın baxıldığı indekslər: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Compendex, INSPEC
  • Açar sözlər: BN, electrical fire risk, Improved Z-numbers, tanker ship
  • Açıq Arxiv Kolleksiyası: Məqalə
  • Adres: Yox

Qısa məlumat

Accommodation fire risk is of paramount importance and highly dangerous for cargo ships, particularly tankers that carry hazardous liquid cargo. The consequences of an accommodation fire may be fatal since the tankers carry flammable liquid cargoes. This paper aims to assess the potential risk of accommodation electrical fire on a tanker ship. To achieve this objective, the paper adopts a Bayesian network (BN) together with improved Z-numbers theory. In the model, BN enables a robust tool based on a cause-and-effect network between the variables, and the improved Z-numbers are able to cover uncertainty and improve the reliability of the analysis. In view of the findings, the occurrence probability of accommodation electrical fire risk on a tanker ship is found to be 9.60E-02. The research outcomes will significantly contribute to understanding the causal network of the electrical fire, as well as enhancing safety.