Derivative variables as indicators of output gap in Poland and Ukraine

Bilan Y., Gazda J., Godziszewski B.

Actual Problems of Economics, vol.129, no.3, pp.331-339, 2012 (Scopus) identifier

  • Nəşrin Növü: Article / Article
  • Cild: 129 Say: 3
  • Nəşr tarixi: 2012
  • jurnalın adı: Actual Problems of Economics
  • Jurnalın baxıldığı indekslər: Scopus
  • Səhifə sayı: pp.331-339
  • Açar sözlər: Hodrick prescott filter, Output gap, Potential output calculations, Theory of real business cycles
  • Açıq Arxiv Kolleksiyası: Məqalə
  • Adres: Bəli

Qısa məlumat

The article describes the crisis trends in the business cycles of Polish and Ukrainian economies at the turn from the XXth to the XXIst century. The method of unobservable (derivative) variables is applied. The analysis of the empitical testing has been carried out to see the deviation from the trend calculated by means of Hodrick Prescott filter. The results obtained can be interpreted, on one hand, as a break in GDP, and on the other, from the viewpoint of the real business cycles theory - as a cyclical component of time series. An attempt is carried out to study the relation between simple observations of the economy and the changes of an unobservable variable. Polish and Ukrainian economies have been studied for the period from 1995:1 to 2012:3.