Akademik Məlumat İdarəetmə Sistemi
70th International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social (p. 796) – Baku, Azərbaycan, Baku, Azerbaijan, 25 - 26 June 2021, no.13, pp.796-803, (Full Text)
The purpose of this article is to assess the impact of procyclical indicators on the main macroeconomic fundamentals of the development of the Azerbaijani economy. As a result, 11 different economic indicators were reviewed and analyzed based on the annual data of the State Statistical Committee from 2000 to 2020 inclusive. Method and methodology of the work. The methodology of the work is comprised of correlation - regression and graphical analysis, as well as fundamental works of foreign scientists and research by experts from the IMF and the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) of the United States. The article investigated and evaluated autocorrelation coefficients for the presence of lagged independent variables and their impact on macroeconomic variables with some delay. The versatile econometric tests carried out in the course of the research showed that the constructed econometric models meet all the basic postulates of econometric analysis, that is, they meet the conditions of specification, parameterization and verification and are sufficiently adequate to the real economic situation in the country. Consequently, the conclusions obtained in the study can be successfully applied to predict cyclical development during the period of diversification of the Azerbaijani economy. The novelty of the research lies in the uniqueness of the work. The study revealed a system of procyclical macroeconomic indicators that allow monitoring economic fluctuations in the Azerbaijani economy. The identified various groups of indicators, leading indicators, which, with a certain degree of reliability, make it possible to identify the phases of expansion and contraction of the economic system, to determine negative trends in the economy and to allow taking measures to eliminate them. Also, false procyclical indicators were highlighted, which in fact do not have any effect on macroeconomic indicators. As a result of the study, three multivariate linear and logarithmic regression models were assessed, the features of the influence of countercyclical indicators on Azerbaijan's GDP were revealed, and their significance was determined.