Akademik Məlumat İdarəetmə Sistemi
International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, vol.12, no.3, pp.32-40, 2022 (Scopus)
The aim of the study is to examine whether there is a Dutch disease symptom by revealing the short-term and long-term effects of oil prices and oil production on non-oil exports in oil-rich Azerbaijan. In this context, autoregressive distributed lag model bounds test and fully modified ordinary least squared method was applied by considering oil price, real gross domestic product and non-oil real export variables covering the period 2001Q1 and 2019Q4. The results of the analysis figure out that there is a cointegration relationship between the variables. Short-term and long-term coefficients are statistically indicated. In the long run, there is a positive relationship between non-oil real exports and oil prices, but a negative relationship between non-oil real exports and oil production. Especially the second finding can be associated with “resource movement effects,” which is one of the symptoms of Dutch disease. The research can be described as original because it evaluates the Dutch disease phenomenon from the perspective of oil (abundant resource) production and because there are almost no similar studies in the literature in terms of examining the effect of oil production on non-oil exports in general. In addition, there is no common opinion in the literature about the presence of Dutch disease in Azerbaijan, in this context, results of this research, which offer a unique perspective to test the presence of Dutch disease, provide valuable information.