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JOURNAL OF EASTERN EUROPEAN AND CENTRAL ASIAN RESEARCH, vol.8, no.2, pp.171-183, 2021 (ESCI)
The purpose of this study is to empirically evaluate the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the context of the economic slowdown in Azerbaijan caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Using the Granger test, causal relationships between fiscal indicators and indicators of macroeconomic development in Azerbaijan have been determined. Based on an oriented graph, the hierarchy levels of indicators of fiscal policy and economic development effectiveness have been substantiated. An integrated assessment of the development of the national economy under the influence of the fiscal policy in the country is presented. Using regression analysis, fiscal risks have been identified that have a destabilizing effect on the economy and aggravate its state during a period of economic shock in the short term. A hypothesis about the different influence of the values of the public expenditure multipliers on the economy, depending on their functional directions, has been confirmed. The structure of expenses of the state budget of Azerbaijan has been empirically optimized, increasing production expenses. The results obtained can serve as a basis for enhancing the anti-crisis strategy of the fiscal policy of the past, not only in a crisis but also to ensure the sustainability of economic development.