Comparative research of inflation based on Ito and ESM models for the USA and Azerbaijan during the pandemic

Ədilxanova M., Qasımov Q.

ELMİ İŞ Beynəlxalq elmi jurnal, vol.17, no.5, pp.202-211, 2023 (Peer-Reviewed Journal)

Qısa məlumat

In the presented thesis, a comparative analysis of Ito's stochastic model and the ESM (Exponential Smoothing Model) model, which is effective for short-term periods, on the time-inflation series for Azerbaijan for the years 2000-2021 and the United States for the years 1996-2020 in the Maple software package is carried out, after determining the appropriate drift and volatility, timelines characterizing the dynamics of inflation are constructed, based on stochastic and smoothed timelines, forecasts are made for both models for the next year under pandemic conditions.