Akademik Məlumat İdarəetmə Sistemi
70th International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development ESD Online Conference, vol.1, pp.705-715, 2021 (Peer-Reviewed Journal)
The study finds that, despite various indicators of economic growth for the world and countries provided by credible international financial institutions, the outlook for economic growth in 2021 is negative due to the global pandemic in 2020. The developing countries are projected to expand at a faster rate. The negative dynamics that have been observed in most countries around the world are the product of a strict quarantine regime enforced in response to the pandemic and its repercussions, and it is unavoidable that the results of such steps will be passed on to the Azerbaijani economy. According to the study, non-oil GDP, which has been a positive contributor to GDP growth over the last three years, will decline by 2.3 percent in annual projections in the timeframe under consideration in 2020. However, in terms of its effect on shifts in overall value added output, it has long since lost its dominant role. To avoid the spread of new coronavirus infections, decreases in value added from non-oil industries, which account for around 70% of GDP, resulted in a 1.4 percentage point reduction in GDP decline. This was due to the April implementation of a strict quarantine regime. The pandemic's continued weakening of aggregate demand has stopped inflation from accelerating, whereas the quarantine regime has sped up disinflationary patterns. Of course, the new strategic plan, which is marked by the restoration of the country's territorial integrity, necessitates deep structural-institutional changes, the formation of export capacity, and long-term economic development through non-oil sector expansion, national economy competitiveness, improving, innovating as well as diversifying the economy. They will ensure the country's economic growth in Azerbaijan if the country's citizens' well-being is strong.