Research Information System
Geojournal of Tourism and Geosites, vol.65, no.2, pp.730-738, 2026 (Scopus)
This study examines the short-term relationships among tourism capital investments, foreign tourist expenditures, and direct employment in the tourism sector across nine countries surrounding the Black and Caspian Seas during the period 1995– 2024, testing the Keynesian demand-driven growth hypothesis. To analyze short-run causal linkages, the Emirmahmutoğlu and Köse (2011) panel causality test was applied at both the panel and country levels. The results reveal a bidirectional causality between tourism capital investments and foreign tourist expenditures at the panel level, a unidirectional causality from capital investments to direct employment, and a significant positive effect of foreign tourist expenditures on job creation. Country-level findings indicate bidirectional causality between investments and foreign tourist expenditures in Iran, Romania, and Azerbaijan, while in Bulgaria, Georgia, and Kazakhstan, a unidirectional causality runs from expenditures to investments. In contrast, no statistically significant relationship is observed in Russia and Turkey. Overall, the findings demonstrate that tourism capital investments enhance both revenues and employment, while foreign tourist expenditures serve as a primary determinant of labor demand, thereby supporting the Keynesian short-run demand-driven growth perspective.