Assessing the middle-income trap in post-Soviet countries: Evidence from unit root tests

Gasim N., Mukhtarov Ş., Gafarli G., Jabiyev F.

Journal of International Studies, vol.18, no.1, pp.156-178, 2025 (Scopus) identifier

  • Nəşrin Növü: Article / Article
  • Cild: 18 Say: 1
  • Nəşr tarixi: 2025
  • Doi nömrəsi: 10.14254/2071-8330.2025/18-1/10
  • jurnalın adı: Journal of International Studies
  • Jurnalın baxıldığı indekslər: Scopus, Central & Eastern European Academic Source (CEEAS), EconLit, Directory of Open Access Journals
  • Səhifə sayı: pp.156-178
  • Açar sözlər: Fourier unit roots, MCDA methods, middle-income trap, nonlinear unit roots, post-Soviet Countries, unit roots
  • Açıq Arxiv Kolleksiyası: Məqalə
  • Adres: Yox

Qısa məlumat

This study investigates whether post-Soviet countries are caught in the middle-income trap, using the Robertson and Ye (2013) approach. A comprehensive set of unit root tests was employed, including traditional tests (ADF), nonlinear tests (KSS, Kruse, Sollis), and advanced Fourier-based tests (FKPSS, FF-ADF, FADF, FKSS, FKruse, FSollis) to analyze the data spanning from 1990 to 2023. The results revealed a significant heterogeneity in convergence patterns across the countries. It can be concluded that Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Georgia exhibited stationarity in most tests, indicating that these countries are in the middle-income trap. In contrast, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Russia, and Ukraine displayed non-stationary results, suggesting that they are not in the trap and are converging toward higher income levels. In addition, the radar chart, coefficient of variation, and three different Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis techniques (Equal Weight Score, Discrimination Weighted Score, and Entropy Weighted Score) were used for robustness check. The results of these tests appear to be consistent with the outcomes of the unit root tests.