Deciphering the temporal sequence of sustainability transitions in India: does carbon mitigation precede renewable energy adoption?


PATA U. K., Ganie A. U. H.

Air Quality, Atmosphere and Health, vol.19, no.4, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 19 Issue: 4
  • Publication Date: 2026
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/s11869-026-01978-7
  • Journal Name: Air Quality, Atmosphere and Health
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, IBZ Online, ABI/INFORM, BIOSIS, Geobase
  • Keywords: Carbon emissions, Carbon neutrality, EKC, Renewable energy, RKC, Sustainable development
  • Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC) Affiliated: No

Abstract

Over the past three decades, India’s rapid economic growth has required a complex balance between industrial expansion and mounting environmental pressures. As the world’s third-largest carbon emitter, India provides a critical context for examining the non-linear relationships among income growth, atmospheric quality, and energy transitions. This study tests the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and Renewable Energy Kuznets Curve (RKC) hypotheses for India from 1990 to 2024. To address structural instabilities and policy changes in the Indian economy, the study employs a Fourier-based cointegration framework combined with Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR). Empirical results confirm an inverted U-shaped EKC, indicating that carbon emissions decouple after a certain income threshold is reached. In contrast, the RKC follows a U-shaped pattern, showing that renewable energy consumption initially declines before increasing as economic capacity matures. A key finding is that the turning point for CO2 emissions occurs significantly earlier than the acceleration point for renewable energy adoption, suggesting that early emission reductions are primarily driven by regulatory efficiency and technological modernization rather than a full transition to clean energy. Additionally, while renewable energy significantly reduces carbon intensity, fossil fuel dependence remains a statistically significant driver of environmental degradation. These results highlight the critical need for synergistic policy frameworks that simultaneously drive large-scale clean energy deployment and deliver prompt emission reductions. In doing so, they advance SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 13 (Climate Action), while strengthening India’s pathway to carbon neutrality and sustainable development amid ongoing energy and climate challenges.