Analyzing the Impact of Climate and Economic Factors on Crop Production: Evidence from the U.S.

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Giyasova Z., Mahmudova İ., Oktem M. K., Maharramova K., Abbasova T.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS, vol.9, no.2, pp.416-423, 2026 (Scopus)

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 9 Issue: 2
  • Publication Date: 2026
  • Doi Number: 10.56578/ijei090207
  • Journal Name: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
  • Journal Indexes: Scopus, Materials Science & Engineering Collection (ProQuest), Technology Collection (ProQuest), Directory of Open Access Journals
  • Page Numbers: pp.416-423
  • Open Archive Collection: Digital Heritage Collection
  • Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC) Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

This study investigates the joint influence of climatic and economic determinants on agricultural productivity

in the United States over the period 1961–2022. The analysis employs the Crop Production Index (CPI) as the

dependent variable, alongside average annual temperature (AAT), GDP growth (GDPG), and gross fixed capital

formation (GFCF) as explanatory variables, to assess the interactions between environmental conditions, economic

dynamics, and crop output. Preliminary descriptive statistics affirmed the suitability of the dataset for parametric

modeling, while the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test confirmed the stationarity of all series at level (I(0)).

Results from Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression indicate that AAT positively and significantly influences CPI,

with a one-degree Celsius increase corresponding to a 7.70-unit rise (p < 0.01). In contrast, GDPG and GFCF exhibit

negative impacts on CPI, decreasing it by 1.96 units (p < 0.05) and 2.93 units (p < 0.05), respectively. Granger

causality tests reveal unidirectional causality from CPI to AAT (F = 7.075, p = 0.001), from AAT to GDPG (F =

3.202, p = 0.048), and from GDPG to GFCF (F = 4.618, p = 0.014), highlighting the temporal interdependencies

among agricultural and economic indicators. Structural break analysis identifies four significant regime shifts

during 1961–2022, reflecting the compounded effects of climatic fluctuations and economic transformations on

agricultural output. These findings emphasize the pivotal role of temperature in shaping crop productivity, while also

demonstrating that macroeconomic expansion can inadvertently constrain agricultural performance. The study offers

empirical insights for designing integrated climate and economic policies aimed at sustaining agricultural productivity

amid evolving environmental and economic conditions.