Research Information System
37th International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development - Socio Economic Problems of Sustainable Development, Baku, Azerbaijan, 14 - 15 February 2019, pp.1143-1149
Statistical analysis of data becomes an integral part of the management system at all levels from a small . firm to the national economy as a whole. The article investigates the scientific views on forecasting the development of regions. In modern conditions of economic development, the implementation of a long-term national program is impossible without taking into account the specifics of regional development. This explains the importance of forecasting at the regional level. Regional forecasting represents the prospects for the functioning of the region at some point in the future. By means of the forecast the possibility of realization of the directions of the state social and economic policy in various spheres and at different levels is estimated. It is important to note that the state forecasting is based on the use of statistical data in the forecast period and recommendations of the subjects of the state, taking into account the opportunities and interests of the region. At the same time, the forecasts of socio - economic development of the regions are on the one hand an integral part of the state forecast, on the other determine the quality of the programs of socio - economic development of the region. The increased interest in this problem is explained by the fact that the forecast makes it possible to determine the probability of crisis situations in different regions of the country, and this in turn will contribute to the adoption of timely decisions in order to avoid negative consequences. Thus, regional forecasting performs analytical, diagnostic and foresight functions and is a mandatory tool for the development of the region's development prospects. This study, focuses on the need for scenario forecasting and modeling, which take into account the influence of the main external and internal factors on the development of the regional economy and make it possible to obtain forecasts that reflect alternative development options. The algorithm of development of the regional forecast on the basis of scenario approach is described. Three scenarios of economic development in the region-optimistic, pessimistic and realistic. Taking into account the stated vision of the three scenarios of the regional economy development, the substantiation of certain provisions of the regional economy development strategy and specific mechanisms for solving the actual problems of its economic growth are considered. The problems arising in the process of forecasting are also identified, and recommendations for improving its efficiency are formulated.