Linking geopolitical risk, load capacity factor, income, labor, population, and trade on natural resources: Evidence from top oil-producing countries

ERDOĞAN S., Kartal M. T., PATA U. K.

NATURAL RESOURCES FORUM, 2024 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Publication Date: 2024
  • Doi Number: 10.1111/1477-8947.12565
  • Journal Name: NATURAL RESOURCES FORUM
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, PASCAL, Agricultural & Environmental Science Database, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), CAB Abstracts, Environment Index, Food Science & Technology Abstracts, Geobase, Greenfile, Pollution Abstracts, Public Affairs Index, Veterinary Science Database
  • Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC) Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

The global economy has been witnessing increasing geopolitical risk (GPR) in recent years. The rise in GPR has several consequences, and the impact of this situation on natural resource rent (NR) has not yet been analyzed for the major oil-producing countries. Given this deficiency, this study analyzes the impact of GPR, gross domestic product, the labor force (LBR), load capacity factor, population density, and trade openness on the NR for the five major oil-producing countries (namely, Canada, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United States of America). To this end, the study analyzes data for the period 1995/Q1-2021/Q4 by using a cross-sectional Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach. The results demonstrate that (i) an increase in GPR and load capacity factor declines the NR; (ii) an increase in gross domestic product stimulates the NR; and (iii) a rise in population density, labor force, and trade openness has a stimulating impact on the NR. Overall, the research shows that all variables substantially impact the NR. Based on the results, various policy options are discussed, such as assessing geopolitical tensions as leverage to sustainably regulate the natural resource market and growth to prevent negative impact from managing the NR effectively for the five major oil-producing countries.