Relationship between clean energy utilization and CO2 emissions under impact of critical mineral prices and geopolitical risk: Evidence from the USA's power sector
Energy Conversion and Management: X, vol.31, 2026 (ESCI, Scopus)
- Publication Type: Article / Article
- Volume: 31
- Publication Date: 2026
- Doi Number: 10.1016/j.ecmx.2026.102096
- Journal Name: Energy Conversion and Management: X
- Journal Indexes: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), Scopus
- Keywords: Clean energy subcomponents, Critical mineral prices, Geopolitical risk, KRLS model, Power sector CO2 emissions, USA
- Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC) Affiliated: Yes
Abstract
Countries have been facing environmental problems, especially due to increasing energy demand. Therefore, addressing the challenge of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by transitioning to cleaner energy sources is a major global concern. Accordingly, this research examines the relationship between clean electricity utilization (EU) subcomponents and power sector CO2 (PCO2) emissions, considering the moderating roles of critical mineral (CM) prices and geopolitical risk (GPR) in the USA, the world's largest economy. In this vein, the study applies a novel kernel-regularized least squares (KRLS) model from 1st January 2019 to 28th November 2025, using the most recent accessible data, to uncover daily-varying impact. The results demonstrate that (i) hydro (wind) EU is associated with an insignificant (reducing) relationship with PCO2 emissions, whereas solar EU and oil price are associated with higher PCO2 emissions at higher percentiles; (ii) CMs’ price changes moderate impact of clean EU subcomponents on PCO2 emissions while some CMs’ prices are much more important than others for each clean EU subcomponents (i.e., steel for hydro EU; silicon for solar; neodymium for wind); (iii) GPR strengthens the impact of solar EU on PCO2 emissions, whereas it is not effective for the impact of other EU subcomponents’ impact on PCO2 emissions; (iv) KRLS explains ∼ 66 % of variations in PCO2 emissions; (v) the results are generally consistent based on the use of alternative CMs’ prices and GPR series (i.e., 7 days average). Thus, this research highlights percentile-based varying relationship of some (e.g., hydro & solar) EU subcomponents and oil price, whereas some factors (e.g., wind EU) exhibit a stable negative relationship with PCO2 emissions across percentiles, as well as the moderating role of CMs’ prices and GPR on the relationship between clean EU subcomponents and PCO2 emissions. Accordingly, the study discusses policy implications to ensure a reduction in PCO2 emissions in the USA.