Testing the export-led growth hypothesis in Turkey: New evidence from time and frequency domain causality approaches

Bozatlı O., BAL H., ALBAYRAK M.

Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, vol.32, no.6, pp.835-853, 2023 (SSCI) identifier

  • Nəşrin Növü: Article / Article
  • Cild: 32 Say: 6
  • Nəşr tarixi: 2023
  • Doi nömrəsi: 10.1080/09638199.2022.2144932
  • jurnalın adı: Journal of International Trade and Economic Development
  • Jurnalın baxıldığı indekslər: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, IBZ Online, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, ABI/INFORM, Business Source Elite, Business Source Premier, EconLit, Geobase
  • Səhifə sayı: pp.835-853
  • Açar sözlər: Export-led growth, frequency domain causality, government expenditure, growth-led export, time domain causality
  • Açıq Arxiv Kolleksiyası: Məqalə
  • Adres: Yox

Qısa məlumat

This study investigates the validity of Turkey's export-led growth hypothesis (ELG) with the time domain and frequency domain causality methods using quarterly data for the 1998Q1–2021Q4 period. We also test whether government expenditure is an important channel within the framework of the ELG hypothesis. The time-domain causality results indicate that the feedback and import-led growth (ILG) hypotheses are valid. The frequency-domain causality results imply that the hypothesis of the growth-led export (GLE) is valid. Therefore, the time and frequency domain causality findings indicate that the ELG hypothesis is invalid. Turkey, which has followed an export-oriented industrialization strategy since 1980, is far from successful in this policy. Therefore, policymakers need to revise Turkey's foreign trade strategy.