Repositioning oil exporters for the Green Energy Transition: the case of Azerbaijan

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Gasimli V., Huseyn R., Suleymanov A.

POLITYKA ENERGETYCZNA-ENERGY POLICY JOURNAL, vol.28, no.4, pp.181-200, 2025 (ESCI, Scopus)

Abstract

Azerbaijan is currently an exporter of oil and gas, but its goal is to sustain its status as an energy exporter by investing in green energy projects for the future. The aim of this paper is to establish a conceptual framework that explores how Azerbaijan, an oil-rich country, can transform into a green energy exporter. This study compares various green energy export scenarios. Findings show that (1) transitioning from fossil fuel exports to green energy generally reduces exporter vulnerability and enhances domestic energy security, despite increasing exposure to international market forces; (2) Azerbaijan could increase its green energy exports to comprise as much as 14% of its exports in the coming years; (3) through these green energy initiatives, Azerbaijan can sustain its role as an energy exporter well beyond 2050; (4) the results of the I-O model show that achieving green energy export targets could lead to a 6.7% increase in Azerbaijan's total output; (5) this shift would also play a crucial role in diversifying the country's export base and formation of net-zero energy systems; (6) it would allow Europe to diversify its energy supply and reduce its dependence on a single country. By combining two different approaches, Azerbaijan has the potential to transition its exports from oil and gas to green energy, thereby positioning itself as a model for other oil-rich nations pursuing sustainable energy development.