The effect of oil prices on macroeconomic variables: Evidencfrom azerbaijan

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Mukhtarov S., Aliyev S., Zeynalov J.

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, vol.10, no.1, pp.72-80, 2020 (Scopus) identifier

  • Nəşrin Növü: Article / Article
  • Cild: 10 Say: 1
  • Nəşr tarixi: 2020
  • Doi nömrəsi: 10.32479/ijeep.8446
  • jurnalın adı: International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
  • Jurnalın baxıldığı indekslər: Scopus, ABI/INFORM, EconLit, Directory of Open Access Journals
  • Səhifə sayı: pp.72-80
  • Açar sözlər: AzerbaijaJEL Classifications: E31, Economic Growth, Exchange Rate, Export, Inflation, Oil Prices, Q4, Vector Error Correction Method
  • Adres: Bəli

Qısa məlumat

This study investigates the impact of oil prices on economic growth, export, inflation and exchange rate in Azerbaijan, employing Johansen cointegration and VECM methods to the data spanning from January, 2005 to January, 2019. The results from the Johansen cointegration method confirm the presence of a long-run relationship among the variables. Estimation results impulse-response and variance decomposition tests reveal that there is a positive and statistically significant impact of oil prices on economic growth, export and inflation for the Azerbaijani case. On the other hand, we find that oil prices have a negative impact on exchange rate. The results of this article will suggest to researchers and policy makers to comprehend the role of oil price shocks on economy in the case of Azerbaijan and other developing oil-rich countries.