Akademik Məlumat İdarəetmə Sistemi
Mathematical Modelling of Engineering Problems, vol.12, no.7, pp.2547-2553, 2025 (Scopus)
Aluminum serves as a cornerstone in promoting environmentally sustainable practices, underscoring the strategic importance of the global aluminum industry within the framework of the evolving green economy. Primary aluminum production (PAP) has experienced a significant upward trend over the past five decades, reflecting the growing demand across various industrial sectors worldwide. This study advances production forecasting methodologies by integrating time series analysis, incorporating a range of scenarios from a central baseline to optimistic and pessimistic perspectives. Through the utilization of the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, the research offers forecasts of PAP trends until 2030, conducting a comprehensive analysis of the industry’s trajectory. Through empirical examination, the forecast reveals a consistent upward trajectory in global PAP. Volumes are anticipated to increase from around 70 million tonnes in 2023 to more than 82 million tonnes by 2030, representing an overall growth of approximately 17%. The model selection and validation procedures involved stationarity testing, analysis of autocorrelation patterns, and evaluation using information criteria to ensure robustness and reliability. Forecasts are presented with confidence intervals to account for uncertainty in future production estimates. This anticipated expansion highlights the enduring global demand and the critical role of aluminum in supporting industrial development and the green energy transition.