Akademik Məlumat İdarəetmə Sistemi
Müəlliflər:
Ələsgərova Aygün Nüsrət qızı – Biznes və Logistika kafedrasının müəllimi
Novruzova Azadə Qadir qızı – İqtisadiyyat kafedrasının dosenti
Elmi əsərin adı:
Effects of Agricultural Inputs and Climate Variability on Crop Production: Evidence from Azerbaijan Using ARDL Approach
Scopus linki:
https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105030669970
Elmi nəşrin adı:
International Journal of Environmental Impacts
Elmi əsərin nəşrin rəsmi saytındakı linki:
https://www.acadlore.com/article/IJEI/2025_8_6/ijei080611
Kvartili:
Q2, Q3, Q4
Xülasə:
This research investigates the long-term relationship between agricultural inputs, climate change, and agricultural output in Azerbaijan, with a particular focus on the effects of irrigation and agricultural supplies (IAS), investment in fixed capital, and climate conditions on agricultural output. Using annual data from 2002 to 2021, the study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to examine cointegration among the variables. The results confirm a statistically significant long-run equilibrium relationship between the Crop Production Index (CPI) and its key determinants, including irrigation and agricultural supplies, investment in agricultural fixed capital (INAG), and average annual rainfall (AAR). The ARDL F-statistic exceeds the upper critical bounds at both the 5% and 1% significance levels, providing strong evidence of cointegration. Robustness checks based on long-run coefficient estimates show that a 1% increase in IAS leads to a 1.319% increase in CPI, while a 1% increase in INAG results in a 0.038% rise in CPI. Conversely, AAR has a statistically significant negative impact, with a 1% increase in rainfall corresponding to a 0.115% decline in crop production, likely reflecting climatic irregularities. These findings underscore the critical importance of sustained capital investment and efficient input supply in enhancing crop productivity, while highlighting the risks posed by environmental variability for sustainable agricultural development in Azerbaijan.