Akademik Məlumat İdarəetmə Sistemi
Müəlliflər:
Kərimzadə Mehriban Vaqif qızı – İctimai idarəetmə və sosial innovasiyalar kafedrası kafedrasının
baş müəllimi
Elmi əsərin adı:
Comprehensive Assessment of Adaptive Water Resources Management in the North
China Plain: Integrating Socio-Hydrological Models with Climate and Policy
Scenarios
Scopus linki:
https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105034586829
Elmi nəşrin adı:
Journal of Hydrology
Elmi əsərin nəşrin rəsmi saytındakı linki:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022169426003495?via%3Dihub
Kvartili:
Q1 (95%)
Həmmüəllif ölkələr: Çin
Xülasə:
Adaptive water management in China’s North China Plain is hamstrung by chronic
groundwater overdraft and increasingly volatile monsoon rainfall. Most
assessments, however, still treat farmer behavior and hydrologic dynamics in
isolation. This study develops a new socio-hydrological framework that couples
a variable-infiltration capacity model with MODFLOW-NWT (VIC–MODFLOW) and a
micro-founded discrete-choice behavioral module. The behavioral component is
calibrated on a 1,204-household survey across 36 irrigation districts using
random-utility estimation and prospect-theory loss aversion parameters.
Reservoirs are co-optimized with a multi-objective rule curve that balances
supply reliability and ecological flows. Downscaled CMIP6 projections (SSP2–4.5
and SSP5–8.5, 2025–2045) drive the coupled system to evaluate irrigation, crop
choice, and pumping responses under water-pricing, efficiency, and quota
policies. The integrated model reproduces observed dynamics credibly: monthly
streamflow NSE = 0.72, groundwater head RMSE = 1.31 m,
and out-of-sample hit rate for irrigation decisions = 78%. Five
headline findings emerge. First, absent new policy, mean annual groundwater
storage declines by 10.6 ± 2.4 km3 by the 2040 s, with
dry-year losses concentrated in Hebei piedmont cones. Second, warmer summers
(+0.9 to +1.6 °C) increase crop evapotranspiration by 3–6%, raising
peak-season pumping by 11% despite a − 3% change in mean
precipitation. Third, a 20% on-farm efficiency upgrade combined with tiered
volumetric pricing reduces agricultural withdrawals by 17% (95% CI: 13–21%)
while maintaining net farm income through input savings. Fourth, endogenous
crop switching shifts 12% of wheat area toward maize and peanuts, cutting
blue-water demand by 8% and stabilizing yields in heat-stress years. Fifth,
adaptive reservoir rules recover 0.7 km3 yr⁻1 of environmental flows to
downstream rivers without compromising municipal reliability. These results
demonstrate that pairing targeted efficiency incentives with progressive
volumetric pricing and adaptive reservoir operation can curb groundwater depletion
while safeguarding farmer livelihoods and ecological flows.